The State of Markets

A brief review of all key upcoming events across the major regions of the globe & an overview of key recent market trends.

Apr 26, 2025

The State of Markets: “Dead Cat Bounce - or New Uptrend Underway?”

Newsflow was positive for US equity markets this week. In particular Trump dialled back his intentions to fire Powell, while his commentary on tariffs also softened (e.g. with hints that he’s open to a US-China trade deal). Elsewhere US earnings continued to surprise to the upside. Most notably that included Alphabet after hours on Thursday (with EPS beating estimates by 48%). The overall earnings surprise for the S&P500 is running at around +10% (up from +6.6% on Tuesday morning and compared with the typical average earnings surprise of ~+4%).

With that the S&P500 is now up 15% from its 7^th April intraday lows, the NDX100 is up 19% (from its intraday lows), while European markets are back to being up for the year. Other key equity markets around the world have also traded well. The key question, therefore, is: Has the pullback finished? Or, with the S&P500 approaching its 50 day moving average (see chart below), is the next move down? Will US equities retest the lows? We outline our views on those questions in recent research.

Next week’s US macro data has a strong labour market theme, with JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, ADP employment on Wednesday, Challenger job cuts on Thursday, which will then be followed by nonfarm payrolls released on Friday (8:30am EST/1:30pm London time). Other key macro data includes the US report on personal income and spending (and PCE inflation), due on Wednesday, as well as ISM Manufacturing (Thursday). Earnings season continues next week, with Microsoft and Meta releasing quarterly updates on Wednesday, followed by Apple and Amazon on Thursday. Please see below for a full list of next week’s key data, earnings and events.

Key chart: S&P500 June 25 futures candlestick with 50 and 200 day moving averages

(All in London time BST)

Events: N/A

Data: N/A

Earnings: N/A

Events: N/A

Data: Eurozone M3 money supply (Mar, 9am); US JOLTS job openings (Mar, 3pm); US Conference Board consumer confidence (Apr, 3pm).

Earnings: Visa, Coca-Cola.

Events: N/A

Data: US personal income & spending including headline & core PCE (Mar, 3:00pm); GDP for France (6:30am), Italy (9am), Germany (9am) & Eurozone (10am) – all Q1 first estimates; US ADP employment change (Apr, 1:15pm).

Earnings: Microsoft, Meta Platforms.

Events: BOJ policy decision (3am).

Data: UK Nationwide house prices (Apr, 7am); US Challenger job cuts (Apr, 12:30pm); US ISM manufacturing PMI (Apr, 3pm).

Earnings: Apple, Amazon.com.

Events: N/A

Data: Eurozone headline & core CPI (April first estimate, 10am); US nonfarm payrolls, hourly earnings & unemployment data (Apr, 1:30pm).

Earnings: N/A

Monthly Global Asset Allocation No. 62, 24^th April 2025:

“Start Moving OW Risk in Strategic Portfolio A.k.a. Add to HY Credit Weightings”

On 8th April we started to add risk in our tactical equity portfolio. That reflected strong evidence of fear and panic in markets. Since then, newsflow has improved, Trump’s tone regarding tariffs has softened, and there’s evidence that trade deals are likely. As well as bearish positioning, therefore, some of the tail risk of a (tariff-related) macro shock has probably been taken off the table.

As such, and while uncertainty is still high, the risk reward favours starting to add risk in strategic portfolios (having moved NEUTRAL risk in early February). Today we are doing that by moving modestly OW HY credit, with a 1pp. weighting increase in both US & EZ HY. We expect to be adding to European equity exposure in coming trading days.

Events: Fed’s blackout period begins.

Data: US Dallas Fed manufacturing sector activity (Apr, 3:30m).

Earnings: Welltower, Waste Management, Cadence Design, Roper Technologies.

Events: N/A

Data: US JOLTS job openings (Mar, 3pm); US Dallas Fed service sector activity (Apr, 3:30m); US FHFA house price index (Feb, 1pm); US wholesale sales & inventories (Mar, 1:30pm); US Conference Board consumer confidence (Apr, 3pm).

Earnings: Visa, Coca-Cola, Booking, S&P Global, Pfizer, Honeywell, Altria, American Tower, Starbucks, Mondelez, UPS, Sherwin-Williams, Ecolab, Regeneron Pharma, PayPal.

Events: N/A

Data: US ADP employment change (Apr, 1:15pm); Canadian GDP (Feb, 12:30pm); US Chicago PMI (Apr, 2:45pm); US personal income & spending including headline & core PCE (Mar, 3:00pm); US pending home sales (Mar, 3pm).

Earnings: Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Qualcomm, Caterpillar, ADP, KLA Corp, Equinix, Trane Technologies, Illinois Tool Works, Aflac

Events: N/A

Data: US weekly jobless claims (1:30pm); US Challenger job cuts (Apr, 12:30pm); Canadian S&P Global manufacturing sector PMI (Apr, 2:30pm); US S&P manufacturing sector PMIs (April final estimate, 2:45pm); US ISM manufacturing PMI (Apr, 3pm); US vehicle sales (Apr, 3pm); US construction spending (Mar, 3pm).

Earnings: Apple, Amazon.com, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Mcdonald’s Linde PLC, Amgen, Stryker, KKR & Co, Southern, ICE, Microstrategy, CVS Health Corp, Airbnb

Events: N/A

Data: US nonfarm payrolls, hourly earnings & unemployment data (Apr, 1:30pm); US durable goods orders (March final estimate, 3pm).

Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Eaton, Cigna

**Fig B:** US Conference Board consumer confidence (index)

Events: Speech by the ECB’s Rehn in an online event (2pm).

Data: Spanish retail sales (Mar, 8am); Spanish unemployment rate (Q1, 8am); French total jobseekers (Q1, 11am).

Earnings: Schneider Electric.

Events: Speech by the ECB’s Holzmann in Vienna (3pm).

Data: Spanish GDP (Q1 first estimate, 8am); Spanish headline & core CPI (April first estimate, 8am); Italian ISTAT consumer & manufacturing confidence (Apr, 9am); ECB 1 & 3 year CPI expectations (Mar, 9am); Eurozone M3 money supply (Mar, 9am); Eurozone consumer confidence (April final estimate, 10am); Italian industrial sales (Feb, 10am).

Earnings: BBVA, Universal Music.

Events: N/A

Data: GDP for France (6:30am), Italy (9am), Germany (9am) & Eurozone (10am) – all Q1 first estimates; French consumer spending (Mar, 6:30am); French headline CPI & PPI (April first estimate, 7:45am); German unemployment (Apr, 8:55am); Italian headline & core CPI (April first estimate, 10am); Italian PPI (Mar, 11am); German headline CPI (April first estimate, 1pm).

Earnings: TotalEnergies SE, Airbus Group, Iberdrola, Santander, Credit Agricole, Caixabank.

Events: Market holiday in various European countries on account of Labor Day.

Data: N/A

Earnings: N/A

Events: ECB publishes Economic Bulletin (9am).

Data: French trade balance (Mar, 7:45am); HCOB manufacturing sector PMIs for Spain (8:15am), Italy (8:45am), France (8:50am), Germany (8:55am) & Eurozone (9am) – all April final estimates apart from Spain & Italy; Italian unemployment rate (Mar, 9am); Eurozone headline & core CPI (April first estimate, 10am); Eurozone unemployment rate (Mar, 10am).

Earnings: Shell, ING Groep.

Events: N/A

Data: CBI distributive trade survey (Apr, 11am).

Earnings: N/A

Events: Speech by the Bank of England’s Ramsden at Innovative Finance global summit (10:40am).

Data: BRC shop price index (Apr, 12:01am).

Earnings: AstraZeneca, HSBC, BP.

Events: N/A

Data: Lloyds business barometer (Apr, 12:01am).

Earnings: GSK plc, Barclays.

Events: N/A

Data: Nationwide house prices (Apr, 7am); Net consumer credit, mortgage approvals & M4 money supply (Mar, 9:30am); S&P manufacturing sector PMI (April final estimate, 9:30am).

Earnings: Lloyds Banking.

Events: N/A

Data: N/A

Earnings: NatWest Group

**Fig D:** UK Nationwide house prices (Y-o-Y %, shown with recession bands)

Events:

Data: N/A

Earnings: Hitachi, Mitsubishi Electric, Oriental Land Co Ltd.

Events: Speech by the RBA’s Kent (3:05am)

Data: N/A

Earnings: Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, Bank of Communications.

Events:

Data: Japanese retail sales (Mar, 12:50am); Japanese industrial production (March first estimate, 12:50am); Australian CPI (Mar, 2:30am); Australian private sector credit (Mar, 2:30am); Chinese manufacturing & service sector PMIs (Apr, 2:30am); Chinese Caixin manufacturing sector PMI (Apr, 2:45am); Japanese housing starts (Mar, 6am); Japanese ESRI leading index (February final estimate, 6am).

Earnings: Tokyo Electron, Murata Mfg, Otsuka Holdings, China Yangtze Power, Midea Group.

Events: BOJ policy decision (3am);

Data: Australian S&P manufacturing PMI (April final estimate, 12am); Australian imports/exports, & trade balance (Mar, 1:30am); Japanese ESRI consumer confidence (Apr, 6am).

Earnings: Mitsui, Hoya Corp.

Events: market holiday in China on account of Labor Day.

Data: Japanese jobless rate (Mar, 12:30am); Japanese Jibun Bank manufacturing sector PMI (April final estimate, 1:30am); Australian retail sales (Mar, 2:30am); Australian PPI (Q1, 2:30am).

Earnings: Mitsubishi Corp, Itochu Corp.

**Fig E:** Chinese manufacturing & service sector PMIs (NBS)

Longview on Friday, 25^th April 2025:

“Tactical Equity Timing: Liberation Day Resistance Levels Looming – What’s Next? PLUS America’s ‘Exorbitant Privilege’ Revisited (All is Not What It Seems)”

Monthly Global Asset Allocation No. 62 24^th April 2025:

“Start Moving OW Risk in Strategic Portfolio A.k.a. Add to HY Credit Weightings”